The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, up from an estimated 4.0 per cent in 2025, citing improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
The projection was contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update released on Tuesday.
The Washington-based lender also projected that Nigeria’s economy would expand by 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.
“Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 percent annually in 2027–28, supported by improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence, and a gradual recovery in private investment,” the World Bank said.
Nigeria was listed alongside Zambia, Ethiopia and Angola among countries whose growth forecasts were upgraded following economic reforms and stronger-than-expected performance.
The World Bank also raised its growth projection for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3 per cent in 2026, from 4.1 per cent projected in April.
According to the lender, growth forecasts were upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region, reflecting better-than-expected economic performance.
The World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, said the region’s economies had continued to show resilience despite a challenging global environment.
“Economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, with growth forecasts upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region,” Dabalen said.
The lender, however, warned that significant risks remained, including a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, the El Niño weather phenomenon, high interest rates in advanced economies and elevated debt-servicing costs.
It said debt levels across the region had stabilised, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at about 57 per cent. However, about half of the countries were either in default or facing difficulties servicing their debts.
The World Bank also cautioned that stronger economic growth had yet to translate into substantial poverty reduction, noting that per capita income growth was expected to increase to only 1.8 per cent in 2026 from 1.6 per cent in 2025.
“The next challenge is turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities,” Dabalen said.
He called on African governments to increase investment in artificial intelligence to boost productivity, economic growth and employment.
Dabalen acknowledged that Africa faced infrastructure and capital constraints that limited its ability to compete with larger economies in AI. However, he said countries could benefit from practical, low-cost applications using affordable devices.
He cited potential applications including tools to support student learning, help farmers detect and manage livestock diseases, and automate tasks such as accounting for small businesses.
He also identified shared data centres and stronger data protection laws as measures that could accelerate the adoption of AI across the continent.
