A fresh increase in petrol prices may be looming in Nigeria following a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, with Brent crude climbing to about $107 per barrel on Thursday from roughly $100 the previous day.
The development has intensified pressure on domestic petrol prices, which have already risen from about N830 per litre before the Middle East crisis to N1,310 or more in some parts of the country.
Before the crisis erupted on February 28, international crude oil prices were below $69 per barrel. However, disruptions to global supplies have since sent prices higher, prompting the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and fuel importers to review their pricing.
Oilprice.com reported that Brent crude gained more than five per cent in early trading on Thursday as the ongoing military confrontation between the United States and Iran disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate crude also rose above $100 per barrel as concerns mounted that the conflict could further constrain global supplies.
The latest rally was largely attributed to a sharp decline in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important routes for energy shipments.
According to the report, daily crude oil flows through the strait, which had recovered to between six million and nine million barrels in previous weeks, had fallen below two million barrels.
Shipping trackers also indicated that no very large crude carriers had exited the strait since early September, pointing to a significant decline in tanker traffic through the strategic waterway.
The disruption has been compounded by attacks on tankers and commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters.
Iran has claimed responsibility for attacks on several ships, while the United States confirmed that some Iranian oil tankers had been destroyed. Neither side has indicated that a ceasefire is imminent, raising concerns that the confrontation could continue for weeks or even longer.
Market analysts said the uncertainty had forced traders to reassess the risks facing global oil supplies, with physical crude benchmarks already moving above $100 per barrel in recent sessions.
Futures prices have also followed the upward trend as inventories tighten and alternative export routes become increasingly vulnerable to attacks.
For months, increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had eased fears of major supply disruptions and helped keep crude prices in check. That trend has now reversed as oil flows through the corridor have fallen sharply.
With no clear diplomatic resolution in sight, the market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a prolonged disruption to the strategic energy route.
For Nigeria, where petrol prices remain closely linked to crude oil and refining costs, a sustained rise in international oil prices could trigger another round of price adjustments as domestic refiners and fuel importers respond to higher crude and supply-related costs.
