India’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level for the first time, sparking concerns among experts about the country’s future workforce, ageing population, and long-term economic growth.
According to the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report released by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9 children per woman. The replacement level fertility rate is generally estimated at 2.1 children per woman, the minimum required to maintain a stable population over time without migration.
The latest figure marks a significant decline from the early 2000s, when India’s fertility rate stood at approximately 3.3 births per woman.
Experts attribute the drop to several factors, including improved access to education, wider availability of contraceptives, increased participation of women in decision-making, and the rising cost of raising children. Declining infant mortality rates have also contributed, as families increasingly feel less need to have more children to ensure survival into adulthood.
The report highlights significant regional differences across the country. Northern states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to record higher fertility rates, while southern states including Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh have some of the lowest rates. New Delhi recorded the lowest fertility rate in the country at 1.2 births per woman.
Demographers warn that while India currently benefits from a large working-age population, a continued decline in fertility could eventually lead to labour shortages and a growing elderly population requiring greater healthcare and social support.
India has been experiencing what economists describe as a “demographic dividend,” a period in which the working-age population outnumbers dependents such as children and the elderly. This demographic advantage has contributed significantly to economic growth and is expected to continue until around 2055.
However, experts caution that unless sufficient employment opportunities and economic reforms are implemented, the country may struggle to fully benefit from this demographic window before population ageing becomes a major challenge.
The falling fertility rate is also expected to influence political and economic debates. Differences in population growth among states may affect the future allocation of parliamentary seats and government resources, potentially increasing tensions between faster-growing northern states and slower-growing southern states.
The trend cuts across religious communities as well. Government data indicates that fertility rates have declined steadily among both Hindus and Muslims over the past three decades, with the Muslim fertility rate recording one of the fastest declines.
In response to the demographic shift, some state governments have begun introducing incentives to encourage larger families. Andhra Pradesh recently announced financial support for families having a third or fourth child, while several states have expanded access to fertility treatment services.
Experts say that rather than focusing solely on increasing birth rates, policymakers should prepare for the long-term implications of an ageing population by strengthening healthcare systems, pension programmes, and social welfare policies.
India is not alone in facing this challenge. Several Asian countries, including China, Taiwan, and South Korea, have experienced sharp declines in fertility rates, with South Korea currently recording one of the lowest fertility rates in the world.
As India’s population dynamics continue to evolve, policymakers face the challenge of balancing economic growth, workforce sustainability, and social welfare in the decades ahead.
